Trading Range

Trade Journal

It is surprising that for the past 33 days i.e., from 10th December 2013 till date, Nifty is trading in a narrow range of 150 points.  Of course, it closed below 6200 in about 10 days and went above 6350 on one day.  Therefore, it is just impossible to make any positional trade.  Worst still, for Option traders.  Did day traders make any money during this period.  I doubt very much.

The best one could have done during this time is to stay on the sideline, observe and learn.
I read and re-read Prechter and Ramki.  Also spent time with Osho.

Market is always there.  Let us wait for more appropriate opportunity. 

Random Thoughts

My trade Journal: EW Probabilities:

1) 4531 - 5630 = 1,100
2) 5630 - 4770 = 860 = 78% of 1
3) 4770 - 6112 = 1,310 = 1.2 % of 1
4) 6112 - 5477 = 635 = 48 % of 3 Overlaps wave one’s price zone
0 to 3 = 1700
5) 5477 - 6230 =   750 = 70 % of 1; 44 % of  0 to 3
Total up move 1 + 3 + 5 = 3,160 a
 4530 - 6230 = 1700 b
a/b = 1.85

The next best View:
3) 4770 - 6415 = 1645 = 1.48 % of 1 = 80 weeks
6565 would be 1.618 %
4) 6415 - xxxx .38 or .5% of wave 3 - wave 4 in progress.
wave 5 yet to commence 

1) 20.12.11 - 22.2.12 = 10 weeks
2) 22.2.12 - 4.6.12    = 16 w
3) 4.6.12 - 29.1.13      = 35 w
4) 29.1.13 - 10.4.13    = 11 w
5) 10.4.13 - 20.5.13  = 6 w


Perhaps, it is desirable to review the labelling

My Trade Journal

Entered on the short side yesterday;  There were two reasons:
             1. Day candle Belt-hold line and 
             2. MACD in hour t/f triggered on the downside.

No other signal is in favor of my entry.

Today I closed my position on no loss no profit level.  Later, realized my exit was wrong.  Before EOD Nifty traveled more than 60 points.  Once again, MACD cross over appears to be dependable.

My trade Journal

I trade only Nifty Options.

After accepting the lag the principles applied to know the direction:

1. Alignment of JNSAR and J10SAR
- If J10SAR is lower than JNSAR, then market is heading south
- If J10SAR is higher than JNSAR, then market is heading north

2. Look for Reversal Patterns
- Evening star; Morning star
- Hammer; Gravestone Doji; Hanging man
- Engulfing pattern
- Hook reversal - inside body.
- Dark Cloud Cover, Piercing pattern
- Crows and mounts
- Sanku - Three gaps
- Kicker Patterns
- Double bottom and double tops

3. EMA CROSS and REFLEX  POINT  for entry and exit

4. Hour MACD and histogram trigger and also divergence

5. Day MACD & Histogram bend and/or trigger and divergence

6. Divergence from oversold and over bought position in STS and RSI

7. VIX

8. ORB

9. Serial EMA’s

10.OI in Option Table

11. FII activity.

Greetings !

2014 has arrived.  Greetings. 

May God bless all with good health, long life and abundance of wealth.  May there be peace and harmony in the earth.

LV